How is the governor of Uttar Pradesh?

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New Delhi. On May 17th she wants her majority in parliament (Vidhan Sabha) from Uttar Pradesh.

Strength relationships in the parliament of Uttar Pradesh

The BSP, building on its solid Dalit base, also put up numerous upper, middle-caste and Muslim candidates, thereby improving its share of the vote by 3% to a total of 23%. As the second strongest parliamentary group, it has 97 MPs, while the previously ruling BJP, as a junior partner, only has 88 seats with approx. 27% of the votes and losses of 5%. Third in the league is the farmers' party, which is only represented in western Uttar Pradesh Rashtriya Lok Dal with 14 MPs.

The one led by the two-time Prime Minister and former Defense Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav Samajvadi party (SP) improved from 110 to 143 seats, despite a 3% loss of votes with a share of about 26% of the votes. His claim, as the leader of what is clearly the strongest faction, to be commissioned to form a government failed, among other things. because of the unwillingness to form a coalition of Congress (I) with only 26 mandates left, but also with the governor of Uttar Pradesh, who on behalf of the central government prevented an alternative power center from establishing itself in Lucknow with a potential pull on the rest of India.

The fragmentation of the party landscape along the lines of social affiliation according to castes continued. A quarter of the MPs have a criminal record or commit serious offenses, including Murder and rape, accused. Lawlessness, chaos and corruption in large parts of Uttar Pradesh require decisive correction by the new government.

Benefits of GNP for the Vajpayee Government

It was only against resolute resistance from large sections of the BJP faction in Uttar Pradesh, who would rather recover from the severe election defeat in the opposition, that the BJP headquarters in Delhi pushed for an alliance with the BSP, regardless of unpleasant memories of short-lived alliances in 1995 and 1997 with Mayawati as Prime Minister.

What causes the BJP, which in Uttar Pradesh in the early 1990s rose from socio-political isolation to become the dominant power factor in Indian domestic politics, to consent to the by no means comfortable role of junior partner?

  1. In view of the possibly uncertain majority situation in the Lok Sabha in New Delhi in the future, the support from outside by the local, now only 12 BSP MPs, allows Prime Minister Vajpayee greater room for maneuver vis-à-vis possible dissidents in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
  2. The BSP has undertaken to cast its votes in favor of the candidate favored by the BJP in the upcoming election of the new President of the Indian Republic on July 30th.
  3. BSP and BJP want to agree on seats in the general election due in 2004, on the one hand to expand the BSP base, but also to give the BJP a solid cushion to maintain its power. Election analysts assume that the vast majority of the Dalit supporters of the BSP will follow the directives of their party headquarters and thus also vote for candidates for the BJP.

Foreseeable scenarios

Mayawati's style of government is considered authoritarian and, in relation to the top bureaucracy, very spectacular even by Indian standards. The former elementary school teacher, who belongs to the caste of the "untouchables" (Harijans), is surely not only due to populist actions as in the past, such as new districts and the erection of busts of the leading figure of the Dalits ("oppressed"), Dr. Ambedkar, in villages and towns that can satisfy aspirations of their followers.

Dalits, together with the diverse groups of "Adivasis", "original inhabitants" or in the official language also called "Scheduled Tribes", make up the vast majority of the 207 million undernourished and malnourished people in India, according to the reliable data of the UN World Food Program ( World Food Program).

During the election campaign, Mayawati swore not to enter into an alliance with the BJP. In the complicated caste hierarchy of Uttar Pradesh, however, Dalits, who to a large extent make up the army of landless farm workers, are in direct antagonistic contradiction to the peasant interests predominantly represented by the SP.

The BSP strategy aims to weaken the upper castes led parties and thus also the BJP in order to become the dominant political force itself. Frequent elections and political instability, according to BSP founder Kanshi Ram, are therefore an advantage for the lower castes. In view of the terrible events in Gujarat, however, the 14 BSP MPs of Muslim faith - they are branded as "traitors" - a massive call for a boycott, among other things. suspended by Muslim religious leaders because of the BSP alliance with the BJP, which is held responsible for the pogroms in Gujarat. BSP General Secretary Mohammed Arif Khan, member of the House of Commons, resigned from the BSP because of the alliance with the BJP.

Mulayam Singh Yadav predicts an early end to the "opportunist alliance" and believes that the mafia - according to him, BSP and BJP have 24 criminals in their ranks - would set the tone in this government.

Will Mayawati, who largely blamed her BJP predecessor Rajnath Singh for the misery of Uttar Pradesh at her first press conference after taking office, will succeed in demonstrating elements of "good governance" in Uttar Pradesh in her third attempt, or will he face it? the financial misery, this applies to practically all states, has this largest state in the Indian Union got even deeper into the vortex of economic stagnation, bureaucratic inefficiency and widespread lawlessness? On the other hand, the new government also has the chance to promote a piece of social and economic emancipation of the Dalits, Most Backward's Castes (MBC's) and the Muslims and thus a long overdue socio-political integration. There are definitely common goals between the two parties.

The BSP, the only Dalit party with clout, could develop into a truly social democratic party. Their rise symbolizes a "silent revolution" in the struggle for emancipation of the disadvantaged classes and castes, especially in northern India. Unfortunately, this party is just as little or hardly noticed by Germans and Europeans as its political leadership. Maneka Gandhi, daughter-in-law of the former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and a minister in the Vajpayee government, told me this morning that the BJP had committed political suicide there through its junior role vis-à-vis BSP in Uttar Pradesh, instead it would have been wiser to play the opposition role strengthen.